Thoughts that can help you handicap the Kentucky Derby, a very big challenge in horse racing
2021-04-07
There are some thoughts and tips that you need to approach every year in the Kentucky derby as a bettor. Handicapping is very challenging. It gets tricky when you place 20 three year olds together on a racing track to compete against one another which is what happens in the Kentucky Derby. Despite the fact that horses already pose tricky situations for handicapping methods, owners, trainers and jockeys can also present such a puzzle in the field. Many trainers place their horses in other challenging stakes in order for them to qualify for the Derby.
Horses that look unbeatable when they are two years old prove otherwise when they become three year olds. This just proves that horses develop at different rates. There are many occasions where a horse injures itself just days or weeks before the Kentucky derby. You will become very disappointed if you hold back your horse thinking it can become a winner in the derby and let prestigious wins go by. It can also be such a huge financial loss for you. The problem therefore lies with the horse owner and the trainer, whether to hold the horse back till the derby day or let it go out and run.
When it comes to handicapping, the problem becomes figuring out where the trainers went. There are the ones that win big two year olds races and three year old races before the derby which are obvious. The ones that hold a horse back and are bringing it out slowly may not be that obvious.
This is the reason there are long shot winners big time. Ensure you consider any horse in the derby as a potential winner, especially in cases where it shows signs of improving speed figures. Do not focus too much on the horse that won in the past or if it was beaten in the past. Focus on what is happening now. You never know whether the trainer of that specific horse that was beaten held his horse back and you never know the maturity rate of that horse.
Dosage is a reliable factor when it comes to handicapping races. Eliminate some horses with the dosage figures but never get carried away. Many front runners that do not seem to rate off their paces a bit have several histories of almost winning the Kentucky derby but never make it along the way. Also, remember to never throw a horse based on their jockey or trainer.